Week 10: Last Week of Regular Season Bringing Seeding Drama

General, Scouting

Do you smell that? It’s not what The Rock is cookin’; it’s MARCH! We are in the last week of the regular season, with most teams having 1 game left. Next week starts conference tournaments, giving hope to Cinderellas for one last shot at dancing. This week’s top 25 will focus on the teams that are squarely into the dance. Next week, expect a conference tournament preview and a discussion of the bubble.

Rank School EVTB Score Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
1 Kansas 26.469 1 2 6 179
2 Gonzaga 24.994 2 111 1 168
3 Baylor 23.495 5 35 14 149
4 Dayton 23.227 8 93 3 131
5 San Diego State 23.075 9 102 2 106
6 Duke 22.751 3 46 5 298
7 Florida State 21.258 16 50 33 154
8 Oregon 20.983 12 31 34 232
9 Michigan State 20.913 4 8 20 336
10 Louisville 20.871 11 55 23 254
11 Maryland 20.188 14 13 58 175
12 Ohio State 20.137 7 18 30 330
13 Brigham Young 20.073 17 71 17 287
14 Creighton 20.056 21 26 40 194
15 Arizona 19.210 6 42 13 346
16 Villanova 19.086 18 17 61 159
17 Kentucky 19.025 27 61 37 176
18 West Virginia 18.901 13 11 48 323
19 Auburn 18.652 35 57 57 102
20 Houston 18.506 23 74 27 315
21 Utah State 18.280 38 97 8 327
22 Seton Hall 18.261 15 19 49 239
23 Wisconsin 18.248 26 4 96 228
24 Penn State 18.086 19 25 53 271
25 Northern Iowa 17.990 60 122 18 214

Kansas’ stranglehold on the #1 spot continues, and the Jayhawks are going to be a number 1 seed, even with an early conference tournament loss. After that, the other #1 seeds get muddier. The field of potential 1s is not large though, consisting of Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor, Dayton, San Diego St and Florida St and Louisville. The shocking part of this list is the strong showing of 3 mid-major programs. If all three skate through conference tournaments, don’t rule out 3 mid-major #1 seeds. On the other side, a bad loss in conference play will derail and chance at a #1 or even #2 seed. As major programs go, a conference championship will slot any of these teams into a #1 seed. Notice how tight #8-20 are, meaning teams could easily jump around the 2 to 5 lines based on conference play.Please note, that these rankings will jump around a little as we give Power 5 a bump and conference champions a bump in seeding. That has not been done at all this season yet. 

Hokies Continue to Learn in 2020 for a Bright 2021

Hokies closed out their home slate with an impressive win against the Clemson Tigers. In addition to celebrating Senior (singular) night, the Hokies locked the already closed door on the Tigers tournament chances. The Hokies ranking status improved slightly to #110 in the EVTB rankings, #82 in NET and #97 in Kenpom. If you have been under a rock, we are not a bubble team for once, but you never know what conference play can bring. Hokie Nation will be hoping for a miracle tournament run, or start looking forward to next season.

What Is The State of Postseason ACC?

Let’s start at the top, the ACC still has a shot at a #1 seed in Florida St and Louisville. I do think that it would require winning the conference tournament for that to happen. Despite their ranking, I am going to rule Duke out #1 contention after their last few games. Moving to the next level, UVA is in, probably in the 7-9 range. They have had an impressive finish to the season. I am capable of giving props when props are due, although they are a snoozefest to watch. Next, comes the bubble. The bubble consists of 3 teams; NC State, Syracuse and ND, with NC State being the most likely 5th team. Aside from winning their last regular season game (sorry ND), these teams will need to rack up at least 2 wins in the ACC tournament to have a decent shot. Don’t forget about a possible miracle run, because mathematically, every team is still alive in the tournament hunt.

ACC Rank Team EVTB EVTB Δ AP NET Kenpom Bracketology
1 Duke 6 -1 12 6 6 3
2 Florida State 7 1 7 11 17 2
3 Louisville 10 0 10 8 9 2
4 Virginia 39 5 22 48 45 7
5 NC State 66 0 59 55 Last 4 Out
6 Notre Dame 73 -14 58 61
7 Syracuse 86 -7 66 54
8 Georgia Tech 95 12 74 68
9 Clemson 98 -3 81 69
10 Virginia Tech 110 5 82 97
11 Wake Forest 126 2 102 94
12 Miami (FL) 128 -9 105 105
13 North Carolina 130 21 84 84
14 Pittsburgh 144 -4 110 113
15 Boston College 216 -9 151 177

 

Team Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
Duke 3 46 5 298
Florida State 16 50 33 154
Louisville 11 55 23 254
Virginia 48 58 100 124
NC State 57 60 120 231
Notre Dame 63 78 97 285
Syracuse 49 59 105 301
Georgia Tech 64 30 168 215
Clemson 64 47 156 273
Virginia Tech 74 77 139 290
Wake Forest 87 40 236 142
Miami (FL) 102 38 266 39
North Carolina 71 20 224 202
Pittsburgh 97 64 231 105
Boston College 134 54 302 4

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.