Another disappointing loss for the Hokies, means that I will be sad writing this column, but such has been life since mid January for us Hokie faithful. Let us turn our heads towards March, which can spark joy for any college basketball fan. Here is this week’s top 25.

Rank	School	EVTB Score	Eff Rank	SOS Rank	MOV Rank	Luck Rank
1	Kansas	26.697	1	2	5	190
2	Gonzaga	24.925	2	112	1	173
3	Baylor	24.057	5	35	11	130
4	San Diego State	23.157	8	102	2	119
5	Duke	23.061	3	44	4	274
6	Dayton	22.667	11	99	5	134
7	Maryland	21.744	12	15	42	147
8	Florida State	21.625	14	48	30	137
9	Creighton	20.681	16	20	36	191
10	Louisville	20.609	13	53	27	254
11	Oregon	20.554	15	21	45	209
12	Michigan State	20.304	4	13	20	340
13	Auburn	20.011	33	60	47	71
14	Brigham Young	19.938	21	67	19	282
15	Villanova	19.886	19	16	55	153
16	Kentucky	19.809	27	63	34	169
17	West Virginia	19.793	9	9	42	325
18	Ohio State	19.569	7	18	32	333
19	Arizona	19.498	6	38	15	344
20	Penn State	19.365	17	32	40	240
21	Utah State	18.827	37	94	8	320
22	Seton Hall	18.813	20	23	48	230
23	Houston	18.611	24	77	25	305
24	Iowa	18.494	22	8	79	214
25	Colorado	17.938	22	36	46	272

 

This week marks the 7th week in a row that we have had Kansas as a #1 seed. Minus a regular season meltdown, pen the Jayhawks in for a 1 seed in the tournament. After that, the potential field gets crowded. I think the case for San Diego St. took a hit with their first loss of the season (undefeated watch is dead), especially with 2 mid-major power houses gunning for a top spot. Kenpom, NET and voters all seem to like Dayton more than our model, and Gonzaga is rightfully high across the board. Don’t be surprised to see an ACC #1 seed if Duke or Florida St. win out through the conference tournament. The crowded field between #7-25 will lead to some debate and hot takes come selection Sunday, as some teams thinking they are deserving of a 3 may end up on the 6 line. Although it will pose a challenge, we are looking forward to predicting the field. With lots of quality matchups coming in conference tournaments, look for some shuffling in that #7-25 group.

 

Hokies Continue to Learn in 2020 for a Bright 2021

 

Well team… that was a wild game. Apparently, the whole roster was replaced with body doubles that learned how to score in the second half. Ultimately, the Hokies dug their own grave in the first half and couldn’t seal the deal against UVA. The string of losses has dropped VT out of the top 100, down to #115. It’s worth noting, our model likes the Hokies the least (we promise no bias, only numbers), but everyone agrees that this is a middling power 5 team. That said, our crowds have been blowing the roof off for this squad each night. The 3 point shooting has cooled, the scoring has cooled, the closing of games has been non-existent, but not all is lost. The Hokies are loaded with freshman that can score, a solid coaching staff, and the kind of flat structure that allows for anyone to step up any night. If this team manages to find some size, prepare for Mike Young to be interviewed every March about his team’s tournament prospects.

 

ACC Showing Signs of Postseason Life?

 

We all know the ACC has 3 locks and 3 top seeds, but last week may have moved that to 4 locks. UVA is now solidly in the field, and has prospects to end up as high as the 6-8 seed range. NC state is getting tournament love, but that seems misplaced to us. Not in the sense that they aren’t worthy, but there are equal or more worthy teams in the conference. If you blind resume Notre Dame, NC State and Syracuse, you would be hard pressed to pick one over the other. All three should be considered equal in terms of tournament chances, giving the ACC a chance at up to 7 teams, but 5 seems like the magic number at this point in the season. Even with the Duke loss to Wake Forest, we still see the ACC as in the running for a #1 seed, with either Duke or Florida St having a chance.

 

ACC Rank	Team	EVTB	EVTB Δ	AP	NET	Kenpom	Bracketology
1	Duke	5	-2	7	6	5	2
2	Florida State	8	1	6	7	17	2
3	Louisville	10	3	11	10	12	4
4	Virginia	44	10	30	51	47	9
5	Notre Dame	59	11	–	55	59	–
6	NCState	66	-2	–	57	53	12 – Last 4 In
7	Syracuse	79	3	–	59	51	–
8	Clemson	95	3	–	77	67	–
9	Georgia Tech	107	9	–	78	73	–
10	Virginia Tech	115	-25	–	85	100	–
11	Miami (FL)	119	6	–	103	107	–
12	Wake Forest	128	9	–	104	95	–
13	Pittsburgh	140	-23	–	111	113	–
14	North Carolina	151	11	–	94	91	–
15	Boston College	207	-26	–	147	173	–

 

Team	Eff Rank	SOS Rank	MOV Rank	Luck Rank
Duke	3	44	4	274
Louisville	13	53	27	254
Florida State	14	48	30	137
Syracuse	46	52	101	303
Virginia	52	64	102	158
NC State	53	66	103	267
Notre Dame	58	82	85	264
Clemson	62	49	142	294
Georgia Tech	67	19	190	213
North Carolina	75	17	242	199
Virginia Tech	76	79	131	293
Wake Forest	89	41	236	141
Pittsburgh	94	61	216	109
Miami (FL)	102	37	260	24
Boston College	134	55	303	5