Week 9: Can The ACC Push For More Tourney Teams? Is 7 in Play?

Scouting

Another disappointing loss for the Hokies, means that I will be sad writing this column, but such has been life since mid January for us Hokie faithful. Let us turn our heads towards March, which can spark joy for any college basketball fan. Here is this week’s top 25.

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Rank School EVTB Score Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
1 Kansas 26.697 1 2 5 190
2 Gonzaga 24.925 2 112 1 173
3 Baylor 24.057 5 35 11 130
4 San Diego State 23.157 8 102 2 119
5 Duke 23.061 3 44 4 274
6 Dayton 22.667 11 99 5 134
7 Maryland 21.744 12 15 42 147
8 Florida State 21.625 14 48 30 137
9 Creighton 20.681 16 20 36 191
10 Louisville 20.609 13 53 27 254
11 Oregon 20.554 15 21 45 209
12 Michigan State 20.304 4 13 20 340
13 Auburn 20.011 33 60 47 71
14 Brigham Young 19.938 21 67 19 282
15 Villanova 19.886 19 16 55 153
16 Kentucky 19.809 27 63 34 169
17 West Virginia 19.793 9 9 42 325
18 Ohio State 19.569 7 18 32 333
19 Arizona 19.498 6 38 15 344
20 Penn State 19.365 17 32 40 240
21 Utah State 18.827 37 94 8 320
22 Seton Hall 18.813 20 23 48 230
23 Houston 18.611 24 77 25 305
24 Iowa 18.494 22 8 79 214
25 Colorado 17.938 22 36 46 272

 

This week marks the 7th week in a row that we have had Kansas as a #1 seed. Minus a regular season meltdown, pen the Jayhawks in for a 1 seed in the tournament. After that, the potential field gets crowded. I think the case for San Diego St. took a hit with their first loss of the season (undefeated watch is dead), especially with 2 mid-major power houses gunning for a top spot. Kenpom, NET and voters all seem to like Dayton more than our model, and Gonzaga is rightfully high across the board. Don’t be surprised to see an ACC #1 seed if Duke or Florida St. win out through the conference tournament. The crowded field between #7-25 will lead to some debate and hot takes come selection Sunday, as some teams thinking they are deserving of a 3 may end up on the 6 line. Although it will pose a challenge, we are looking forward to predicting the field. With lots of quality matchups coming in conference tournaments, look for some shuffling in that #7-25 group.

 

Hokies Continue to Learn in 2020 for a Bright 2021

 

Well team… that was a wild game. Apparently, the whole roster was replaced with body doubles that learned how to score in the second half. Ultimately, the Hokies dug their own grave in the first half and couldn’t seal the deal against UVA. The string of losses has dropped VT out of the top 100, down to #115. It’s worth noting, our model likes the Hokies the least (we promise no bias, only numbers), but everyone agrees that this is a middling power 5 team. That said, our crowds have been blowing the roof off for this squad each night. The 3 point shooting has cooled, the scoring has cooled, the closing of games has been non-existent, but not all is lost. The Hokies are loaded with freshman that can score, a solid coaching staff, and the kind of flat structure that allows for anyone to step up any night. If this team manages to find some size, prepare for Mike Young to be interviewed every March about his team’s tournament prospects.

 

ACC Showing Signs of Postseason Life?

 

We all know the ACC has 3 locks and 3 top seeds, but last week may have moved that to 4 locks. UVA is now solidly in the field, and has prospects to end up as high as the 6-8 seed range. NC state is getting tournament love, but that seems misplaced to us. Not in the sense that they aren’t worthy, but there are equal or more worthy teams in the conference. If you blind resume Notre Dame, NC State and Syracuse, you would be hard pressed to pick one over the other. All three should be considered equal in terms of tournament chances, giving the ACC a chance at up to 7 teams, but 5 seems like the magic number at this point in the season. Even with the Duke loss to Wake Forest, we still see the ACC as in the running for a #1 seed, with either Duke or Florida St having a chance.

 

ACC Rank Team EVTB EVTB Δ AP NET Kenpom Bracketology
1 Duke 5 -2 7 6 5 2
2 Florida State 8 1 6 7 17 2
3 Louisville 10 3 11 10 12 4
4 Virginia 44 10 30 51 47 9
5 Notre Dame 59 11 55 59
6 NCState 66 -2 57 53 12 – Last 4 In
7 Syracuse 79 3 59 51
8 Clemson 95 3 77 67
9 Georgia Tech 107 9 78 73
10 Virginia Tech 115 -25 85 100
11 Miami (FL) 119 6 103 107
12 Wake Forest 128 9 104 95
13 Pittsburgh 140 -23 111 113
14 North Carolina 151 11 94 91
15 Boston College 207 -26 147 173

 

Team Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
Duke 3 44 4 274
Louisville 13 53 27 254
Florida State 14 48 30 137
Syracuse 46 52 101 303
Virginia 52 64 102 158
NC State 53 66 103 267
Notre Dame 58 82 85 264
Clemson 62 49 142 294
Georgia Tech 67 19 190 213
North Carolina 75 17 242 199
Virginia Tech 76 79 131 293
Wake Forest 89 41 236 141
Pittsburgh 94 61 216 109
Miami (FL) 102 37 260 24
Boston College 134 55 303 5

 

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