After a brief hiatus for a trip to watch the Hokies trounce the Pitt Panthers, we’re back with some updated rankings. The season is fast coming to a close, and tournament season will shortly be here. We’re all here to see what will happen, so let’s get to the predictions.

Rank	School	EVTB Score	Eff Rank	SOS Rank	MOV Rank	Luck Rank
1	Kansas	26.494	1	2	6	198
2	Gonzaga	25.287	3	119	1	126
3	Duke	24.827	2	39	3	215
4	Baylor	24.665	5	38	10	99
5	San Diego State	24.439	8	103	2	84
6	Dayton	22.827	10	95	5	140
7	Maryland	22.119	11	17	38	143
8	West Virginia	21.202	7	5	33	301
9	Florida State	21.114	19	51	32	147
10	Oregon	20.620	15	24	44	205
11	Arizona	20.507	6	41	11	332
12	Auburn	20.462	32	59	43	66
13	Louisville	20.456	16	58	26	232
14	Creighton	20.203	20	18	45	182
15	Michigan State	19.866	4	8	25	341
16	Penn State	19.828	13	32	37	237
17	Colorado	19.766	14	36	35	259
18	Ohio State	19.535	9	21	31	334
19	Kentucky	19.441	28	62	38	180
20	Brigham Young	19.361	21	68	22	295
21	Rutgers	19.092	26	29	42	318
22	Villanova	19.017	22	12	72	158
23	Iowa	18.457	25	13	77	209
24	Seton Hall	18.443	18	19	57	242
25	Utah State	18.382	39	82	14	317

 

This week’s biggest winner, keeping with the season’s mid-major theme, is the Creighton Bluejays. After impressive wins over DePaul, and ranked Marquette and Seton Hall, Creighton rockets up 13 spots to #14. That’s a giant move this late in the season. Conversely, Seton Hall took a big tumble to the bottom of the top 25. The top 10 has been really steady this month, with the top 5 teams (Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke, Baylor and San Diego State) really separating themselves from a quantitative perspective. Beyond those 5 though, the dispersion of ratings is low, meaning #6-25 are as close to each other as most years. This will surely make for an entertaining March. We’ve been highlighting the Big 10 and mid-major success, but it’s time to pump up the Big 12, which will likely produce 3 teams with top 2 seeds, including a possible duo (trio?!) of 1 seeds. San Diego State undefeated watch is still alive! Perhaps we will have a duo or trio of mid-major 1 seeds (Dayton, San Diego State and Gonzaga).

 

Struggles Don’t Stop Hokies from Putting on Show

 

Hokie Nation has settled into its new place of no longer worrying about March, but that doesn’t mean this team isn’t fun to watch and that fans have abandoned the team. If anything, Cassell is more rocking that any point in the last decade! Just this week, the Hokies downed the Pittsburgh Astros… I mean Panthers. Pitt definitely ate a big pile of… sorry, forgot we’re a family program. The convincing win was a nice break from the struggles that plagued the team since mid January. Wednesday’s game, while a let down in the end, was one of the most exciting of the NCAA season. Triple overtime and ESPN Top 10 circus shots kept Cassell shaking, but ultimately, Mike Young’s team couldn’t weather the Hurricanes. The Hokies now sit at #90 in our model, after falling 8 spots. Kenpom is essentially in exact agreement at #92, but NET likes them more at #75. The Hokies are still a rather efficient team relative to the ranking, even with their struggles, but the margin of victory and strength of schedule is dragging them down. Some of those early wins (Delaware State, Lehigh, SC Upstate) came against some of the worst programs in the NCAA.

 

Flat ACC Could Make for Wild ACC Tournament

 

Let’s keep beating this dead horse: The ACC is still bad at basketball. The top-heavy conference may be in for a tumble come March. It’s looking more and more likely that the Cavaliers will make it as an at-large, giving the former powerhouse conference a whopping 4 teams in the tournament. Teams like NC State, ND and Syracuse aren’t done, but their success at making the tournament would have to come at the expense of teams like Duke, Louisville and Florida State. With how flat the ACC has been, could an unsuspecting team make an ACC tourney run? Perhaps a team loaded with scoring freshman (most in the NCAA) that hit a mid-season lull will pull it together, giving fans a dream end to the season? Perhaps I’m dreaming? Gobble Gobble. After a few more regular season games, we will have our ACC tournament preview for you, and I think it could be full of surprises!

 

ACC Rank	Team	EVTB	EVTB Δ	AP	NET	Kenpom	Bracketology
1	Duke	3	0	6	6	2	2
2	Florida State	9	4	8	13	21	2
3	Louisville	13	-5	11	10	12	3
4	Virginia	54	1	31	54	52	11
5	NC State	64	3	–	60	60	Next 4 Out
6	Notre Dame	70	-4	–	61	65	–
7	Syracuse	82	-11	–	64	54	–
8	Virginia Tech	90	-8	–	75	92	–
9	Clemson	98	13	–	79	72	–
10	Georgia Tech	116	0	–	88	82	–
11	Pittsburgh	117	-23	–	100	98	–
12	Miami (FL)	125	23	–	101	104	–
13	Wake Forest	137	8	–	103	97	–
14	North Carolina	162	-21	–	92	93	–
15	Boston College	181	12	–	142	155	–

 

Team	Eff Rank	SOS Rank	MOV Rank	Luck Rank
Duke	2	39	3	215
Florida State	19	51	32	147
Louisville	16	58	26	232
Virginia	53	57	115	191
NC State	63	72	107	225
Notre Dame	61	78	97	283
Syracuse	49	55	102	322
Virginia Tech	70	87	100	297
Clemson	61	39	146	287
Georgia Tech	72	20	198	224
Pittsburgh	87	60	200	123
Miami (FL)	101	34	261	24
Wake Forest	100	42	244	128
North Carolina	76	16	236	231
Boston College	130	54	295	3