Week 8: Hokies Keep It Entertaining, Big 12 Making Strong NCAA Push

General

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After a brief hiatus for a trip to watch the Hokies trounce the Pitt Panthers, we’re back with some updated rankings. The season is fast coming to a close, and tournament season will shortly be here. We’re all here to see what will happen, so let’s get to the predictions.

Rank School EVTB Score Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
1 Kansas 26.494 1 2 6 198
2 Gonzaga 25.287 3 119 1 126
3 Duke 24.827 2 39 3 215
4 Baylor 24.665 5 38 10 99
5 San Diego State 24.439 8 103 2 84
6 Dayton 22.827 10 95 5 140
7 Maryland 22.119 11 17 38 143
8 West Virginia 21.202 7 5 33 301
9 Florida State 21.114 19 51 32 147
10 Oregon 20.620 15 24 44 205
11 Arizona 20.507 6 41 11 332
12 Auburn 20.462 32 59 43 66
13 Louisville 20.456 16 58 26 232
14 Creighton 20.203 20 18 45 182
15 Michigan State 19.866 4 8 25 341
16 Penn State 19.828 13 32 37 237
17 Colorado 19.766 14 36 35 259
18 Ohio State 19.535 9 21 31 334
19 Kentucky 19.441 28 62 38 180
20 Brigham Young 19.361 21 68 22 295
21 Rutgers 19.092 26 29 42 318
22 Villanova 19.017 22 12 72 158
23 Iowa 18.457 25 13 77 209
24 Seton Hall 18.443 18 19 57 242
25 Utah State 18.382 39 82 14 317

 

This week’s biggest winner, keeping with the season’s mid-major theme, is the Creighton Bluejays. After impressive wins over DePaul, and ranked Marquette and Seton Hall, Creighton rockets up 13 spots to #14. That’s a giant move this late in the season. Conversely, Seton Hall took a big tumble to the bottom of the top 25. The top 10 has been really steady this month, with the top 5 teams (Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke, Baylor and San Diego State) really separating themselves from a quantitative perspective. Beyond those 5 though, the dispersion of ratings is low, meaning #6-25 are as close to each other as most years. This will surely make for an entertaining March. We’ve been highlighting the Big 10 and mid-major success, but it’s time to pump up the Big 12, which will likely produce 3 teams with top 2 seeds, including a possible duo (trio?!) of 1 seeds. San Diego State undefeated watch is still alive! Perhaps we will have a duo or trio of mid-major 1 seeds (Dayton, San Diego State and Gonzaga).

 

Struggles Don’t Stop Hokies from Putting on Show

 

Hokie Nation has settled into its new place of no longer worrying about March, but that doesn’t mean this team isn’t fun to watch and that fans have abandoned the team. If anything, Cassell is more rocking that any point in the last decade! Just this week, the Hokies downed the Pittsburgh Astros… I mean Panthers. Pitt definitely ate a big pile of… sorry, forgot we’re a family program. The convincing win was a nice break from the struggles that plagued the team since mid January. Wednesday’s game, while a let down in the end, was one of the most exciting of the NCAA season. Triple overtime and ESPN Top 10 circus shots kept Cassell shaking, but ultimately, Mike Young’s team couldn’t weather the Hurricanes. The Hokies now sit at #90 in our model, after falling 8 spots. Kenpom is essentially in exact agreement at #92, but NET likes them more at #75. The Hokies are still a rather efficient team relative to the ranking, even with their struggles, but the margin of victory and strength of schedule is dragging them down. Some of those early wins (Delaware State, Lehigh, SC Upstate) came against some of the worst programs in the NCAA.

 

Flat ACC Could Make for Wild ACC Tournament

 

Let’s keep beating this dead horse: The ACC is still bad at basketball. The top-heavy conference may be in for a tumble come March. It’s looking more and more likely that the Cavaliers will make it as an at-large, giving the former powerhouse conference a whopping 4 teams in the tournament. Teams like NC State, ND and Syracuse aren’t done, but their success at making the tournament would have to come at the expense of teams like Duke, Louisville and Florida State. With how flat the ACC has been, could an unsuspecting team make an ACC tourney run? Perhaps a team loaded with scoring freshman (most in the NCAA) that hit a mid-season lull will pull it together, giving fans a dream end to the season? Perhaps I’m dreaming? Gobble Gobble. After a few more regular season games, we will have our ACC tournament preview for you, and I think it could be full of surprises!

 

ACC Rank Team EVTB EVTB Δ AP NET Kenpom Bracketology
1 Duke 3 0 6 6 2 2
2 Florida State 9 4 8 13 21 2
3 Louisville 13 -5 11 10 12 3
4 Virginia 54 1 31 54 52 11
5 NC State 64 3 60 60 Next 4 Out
6 Notre Dame 70 -4 61 65
7 Syracuse 82 -11 64 54
8 Virginia Tech 90 -8 75 92
9 Clemson 98 13 79 72
10 Georgia Tech 116 0 88 82
11 Pittsburgh 117 -23 100 98
12 Miami (FL) 125 23 101 104
13 Wake Forest 137 8 103 97
14 North Carolina 162 -21 92 93
15 Boston College 181 12 142 155

 

Team Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
Duke 2 39 3 215
Florida State 19 51 32 147
Louisville 16 58 26 232
Virginia 53 57 115 191
NC State 63 72 107 225
Notre Dame 61 78 97 283
Syracuse 49 55 102 322
Virginia Tech 70 87 100 297
Clemson 61 39 146 287
Georgia Tech 72 20 198 224
Pittsburgh 87 60 200 123
Miami (FL) 101 34 261 24
Wake Forest 100 42 244 128
North Carolina 76 16 236 231
Boston College 130 54 295 3

 

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