After a brief hiatus for a trip to watch the Hokies trounce the Pitt Panthers, we’re back with some updated rankings. The season is fast coming to a close, and tournament season will shortly be here. We’re all here to see what will happen, so let’s get to the predictions.
|Rank||School||EVTB Score||Eff Rank||SOS Rank||MOV Rank||Luck Rank|
|5||San Diego State||24.439||8||103||2||84|
This week’s biggest winner, keeping with the season’s mid-major theme, is the Creighton Bluejays. After impressive wins over DePaul, and ranked Marquette and Seton Hall, Creighton rockets up 13 spots to #14. That’s a giant move this late in the season. Conversely, Seton Hall took a big tumble to the bottom of the top 25. The top 10 has been really steady this month, with the top 5 teams (Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke, Baylor and San Diego State) really separating themselves from a quantitative perspective. Beyond those 5 though, the dispersion of ratings is low, meaning #6-25 are as close to each other as most years. This will surely make for an entertaining March. We’ve been highlighting the Big 10 and mid-major success, but it’s time to pump up the Big 12, which will likely produce 3 teams with top 2 seeds, including a possible duo (trio?!) of 1 seeds. San Diego State undefeated watch is still alive! Perhaps we will have a duo or trio of mid-major 1 seeds (Dayton, San Diego State and Gonzaga).
Struggles Don’t Stop Hokies from Putting on Show
Hokie Nation has settled into its new place of no longer worrying about March, but that doesn’t mean this team isn’t fun to watch and that fans have abandoned the team. If anything, Cassell is more rocking that any point in the last decade! Just this week, the Hokies downed the Pittsburgh Astros… I mean Panthers. Pitt definitely ate a big pile of… sorry, forgot we’re a family program. The convincing win was a nice break from the struggles that plagued the team since mid January. Wednesday’s game, while a let down in the end, was one of the most exciting of the NCAA season. Triple overtime and ESPN Top 10 circus shots kept Cassell shaking, but ultimately, Mike Young’s team couldn’t weather the Hurricanes. The Hokies now sit at #90 in our model, after falling 8 spots. Kenpom is essentially in exact agreement at #92, but NET likes them more at #75. The Hokies are still a rather efficient team relative to the ranking, even with their struggles, but the margin of victory and strength of schedule is dragging them down. Some of those early wins (Delaware State, Lehigh, SC Upstate) came against some of the worst programs in the NCAA.
Flat ACC Could Make for Wild ACC Tournament
Let’s keep beating this dead horse: The ACC is still bad at basketball. The top-heavy conference may be in for a tumble come March. It’s looking more and more likely that the Cavaliers will make it as an at-large, giving the former powerhouse conference a whopping 4 teams in the tournament. Teams like NC State, ND and Syracuse aren’t done, but their success at making the tournament would have to come at the expense of teams like Duke, Louisville and Florida State. With how flat the ACC has been, could an unsuspecting team make an ACC tourney run? Perhaps a team loaded with scoring freshman (most in the NCAA) that hit a mid-season lull will pull it together, giving fans a dream end to the season? Perhaps I’m dreaming? Gobble Gobble. After a few more regular season games, we will have our ACC tournament preview for you, and I think it could be full of surprises!
|ACC Rank||Team||EVTB||EVTB Δ||AP||NET||Kenpom||Bracketology|
|5||NC State||64||3||–||60||60||Next 4 Out|
|Team||Eff Rank||SOS Rank||MOV Rank||Luck Rank|