Week 7: The Hokies Bubble Goes Pop, Seeking NIT With Rest of ACC

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It has been a tough week for Hokie and ACC fans, but don’t forget to keep in mind that this rebuild team flew extremely high for a while and showed us what is in store for the future. The Hokies are farther from sniffing the top 25 than they were to start the year, but that doesn’t mean we won’t discuss it.

Rank School EVTB Score Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
1 Kansas 25.880 1 1 6 210
2 Gonzaga 25.049 3 117 1 131
3 Duke 24.521 2 40 2 230
4 San Diego State 24.136 9 101 3 88
5 Baylor 24.009 7 52 10 107
6 West Virginia 23.138 6 6 20 236
7 Dayton 22.881 8 92 4 156
8 Louisville 21.928 11 55 16 175
9 Maryland 21.820 12 7 43 183
10 Arizona 21.466 5 39 7 334
11 Auburn 21.125 23 61 34 80
12 Michigan State 21.112 4 9 13 337
13 Florida State 20.739 21 59 33 136
14 Oregon 20.732 13 14 50 185
15 Penn State 19.851 17 38 40 224
16 Seton Hall 19.685 15 14 52 203
17 Colorado 19.490 14 33 35 250
18 Iowa 19.471 16 10 55 237
19 Ohio State 19.409 10 22 27 333
20 Villanova 19.210 24 11 77 141
21 Illinois 19.199 25 29 42 290
22 Rutgers 19.049 26 27 47 318
23 Butler 18.888 22 36 53 205
24 Kentucky 18.776 27 57 44 214
25 Brigham Young 18.774 19 45 32 307

Top 25 movement really picked up this week. On the upside, Ohio State returned to the top 25 after an 8 spot jump, Penn State leapt up 7 places and Auburn climbed 4 notches. On the other hand, Michigan State slid 4 spots, Oregon and Rutgers both dropped down 5 places and Villanova was whacked for 7 spots in the top 25. The Big Ten is still this year’s power conference. Double digit NCAA teams is a real possibility. Even with lackluster strength of schedules, Gonzaga, San Diego State and Dayton remain strong in the top 7 with an onslaught of efficient blowouts in conference play. The Aztec’s undefeated watch is still alive. With how the season has progressed, I am still of the mind that anyone in the top 15 is still in play for a 1 seed, so the field is wide open.

Blacksburg’s Bubble Burst

Since our last update, the Hokies plummeted down 20 spots to #82 after crushing defeats to several subpar opponents. Team, the short-lived dream of making the tournament is over, with the exception of a miracle ACC tournament run. I guess, given how poor the ACC is this year, we can’t fully rule that out. The Hokies still remain an above-average team in terms of efficiency, but their strength of schedule and margin of victory took a whack in the string of losses. The Hokies have some reflecting to do, and still keep a bright future. NET still views the Hokies more favorably than we do, but fellow Hokie, Kenpom, takes the other side.

ACC DOMINANT… In The NIT

We really need to start discussing the chances of the ACC only getting 3 NCAA tournament teams. We had discussed it as a small chance or a joke before, but it no longer is. Duke, Loiusville and Florida State are all going to get in, likey in the 1-3 seed range. Beyond that… crickets. There’s no evidence that the ACC is supporting a strong 4th NCAA team. Now, will someone sneak in as a 8-12 seed at large? Probably. But to say this a down season is the understatement of the year. At this time, we say that UVA is the most likely candidate to make the dance of the bubble teams, but that’s mostly based on the committee not wanting to leave the champs out. After that, Syracuse, Notre Dame and NC State all have an outside shot of making it. On the upside, we can easily see the ACC dominating the NIT field with up to 8 teams! Let’s hop in that time machine back to the early 70’s when the NIT was the dominant tournament. 

ACC Rank Team EVTB EVTB Δ AP NET Kenpom Bracketology
1 Duke 3 0 7 6 2 2
2 Louisville 8 2 5 7 8 2
3 Florida State 13 3 8 14 20 3
4 Virginia 55 3 41 56 54
5 Notre Dame 66 14 59 58
6 NC State 67 -10 63 61
7 Syracuse 71 -1 65 53
8 Virginia Tech 82 -20 71 93
9 Pittsburgh 94 2 81 84
10 Clemson 111 -13 98 98
11 Georgia Tech 116 11 78 81
12 North Carolina 141 -23 95 97
13 Wake Forest 145 13 105 100
14 Miami (FL) 148 -19 109 126
15 Boston College 193 9 147 158

 

Team Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
Duke 2 40 2 230
Louisville 11 55 16 175
Florida State 21 59 33 136
Virginia 56 63 99 222
Notre Dame 51 88 67 319
NC State 59 66 103 211
Syracuse 46 53 91 317
Virginia Tech 69 83 100 285
Pittsburgh 76 59 159 160
Clemson 74 43 181 231
Georgia Tech 68 5 197 227
North Carolina 82 21 223 178
Wake Forest 98 36 243 111
Miami (FL) 107 19 286 15
Boston College 130 48 296 7

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