Week 6: Hokies Struggles Start Slide Off The Bubble, Will A Mid-Major Cut Down Nets?

General

Guys, we are heading into the last month of regular season play?! It’s hard to believe, but there is no reason to fret… it just means tournament season is looming. Will the ACC be part of it, or has the conference become a 2020 afterthought? Will Big 10 dominance continue? Will a mid-major take down the title? In this wacky season, all of the above could happen! This week’s top 25 is:

Rank School EVTB Score Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
1 Kansas 26.024 1 1 5 234
2 Gonzaga 25.270 3 120 1 134
3 Duke 24.669 2 31 2 248
4 Baylor 23.959 7 46 10 111
5 San Diego State 23.923 10 104 3 87
6 Dayton 23.051 8 85 4 159
7 West Virginia 22.885 6 5 21 251
8 Michigan State 22.739 4 15 8 310
9 Oregon 21.650 11 8 43 176
10 Louisville 21.338 14 52 17 183
11 Maryland 21.306 12 11 51 215
12 Arizona 21.295 5 28 7 342
13 Villanova 20.988 17 18 58 106
14 Seton Hall 20.929 12 13 45 202
15 Auburn 20.409 32 74 34 89
16 Florida State 20.302 24 61 36 148
17 Rutgers 20.067 21 30 32 270
18 Colorado 20.007 15 23 39 222
19 Butler 19.865 19 38 53 197
20 Iowa 19.693 16 21 54 230
21 Illinois 19.455 23 31 30 273
22 Penn State 19.105 18 41 45 253
23 Louisiana State 19.018 29 58 45 179
24 Wichita State 18.973 35 82 31 155
25 Northern Iowa 18.965 51 101 20 165

 

Even with many top teams dropping important games, there actually a calm in the rankings this week. This has become the normal this year, as no one has been safe in the top 5, 10 or 25, causing single losses to have a muted impact. Penn St. rocketed up 10 spots to #22 this week after three impressive victories against Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana. Conference wise, the Big 12 is top heavy with 3 top 10 teams, while the Big 10 dominance continues with 5 top 25 teams, and double that in tournament hopefuls. The 2020 highlights are mid-major teams. Currently there are 3 top 10 squads and 6 top 25 programs that are not from majors. 

 

Hokies Tournament Chances Take Shot to the Chin

 

Since our last update, the Hokies dropped 2 games to below-average opponents. The result was an 11 spot fall down to #62 in the EVTB model. Across other rankings, the Hokies lost all votes in human polls, slipped 11 notches in NET, 16 places in Kenpom and lost most of their love in Bracketology. Mike Young’s squad is still on the bubble, but it’s starting to get slippery. The Hokies have certainly dug themselves a hole, but it is recoverable. While currently sitting on the outside after losses to Boston College and Miami, the path to NCAA is still there. As highlighted on the podcast, it will take a win against a top 15 team in Duke, Louisville or Florida State, plus racking up a slate of wins against lower opponents. That combination should lead the Hokies to the dance.

 

Is the ACC Now A Football Conference? 

 

Blacksburg has been buzzing with thoughts of “is Virginia Tech becoming a basketball school?” However, the other side of that question needs to be asked: Is the ACC becoming a football conference? After yet another lackluster week, one could argue that the ACC is going to see more football success this season than basketball success, likely a first since… forever? Duke and Louisville are still sitting near the top, but the 3rd conference darling, Florida State dropped 5 spots this week, and tournament hopeful, NC State Wolfpack plummeted down 12 spots. The ACC is still littered with top 100 schools, but only 3 are top 50. That’s a result that will lead to a frenzy of NIT bids. Heading into February, the ACC can only claim 3 tournament locks, and likely 4 to 5 other hopefuls. 

 

ACC Rank Team EVTB EVTB Δ AP NET Kenpom Bracketology
1 Duke 3 0 9 6 2 4
2 Louisville 10 4 6 10 9 2
3 Florida State 16 -5 5 18 19 2
4 NC State 57 -12 57 56 11 – Last 4 In
5 Virginia 58 15 54 50 Next 4 Out
6 Virginia Tech 62 -11 53 72 First 4 Out
7 Syracuse 70 5 60 51
8 Notre Dame 80 -6 68 60
9 Pittsburgh 96 -6 76 77
10 Clemson 98 2 83 84
11 North Carolina 118 39 93 82
12 Georgia Tech 127 31 88 83
13 Miami (FL) 129 -15 101 112
14 Wake Forest 158 -16 114 108
15 Boston College 202 4 159 170

 

Team Eff Rank SOS Rank MOV Rank Luck Rank
Duke 2 31 2 248
Louisville 14 52 17 183
Florida State 24 61 36 148
NC State 55 68 91 229
Virginia 56 57 110 231
Virginia Tech 61 94 79 281
Syracuse 48 61 84 308
Notre Dame 58 99 70 329
Pittsburgh 72 56 151 170
Clemson 64 34 161 225
North Carolina 73 17 218 144
Georgia Tech 74 6 208 204
Miami (FL) 102 12 282 7
Wake Forest 104 39 250 102
Boston College 146 60 295 11

 

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