Week 5: ACC Taking Shape, Hokies Just Outside Top Tier


At this time in the year, we have some real insights into teams, and where they may end up in the NCAA tournament. We’d say anyone hanging around the top 15 is still in the running for a 1 seed, especially with no one truly separating themselves above the rest of the college ranks, except the Aztecs who hang onto undefeated dreams. Top 25 is below:

RankSchoolEVTB ScoreEff RankSOS RankMOV Rank
4San Diego State24.0869973
6West Virginia23.3386522
8Michigan State22.73851211
11Florida State21.299195329
13Seton Hall21.01511648
19Ohio State19.568102324
22Northern Iowa19.378539323
25Wichita State18.972366837

This week, we welcome Northern Iowa, Iowa (what a week for the hawkeye state) and Villanova to our top 25. There were no major changes, except for Auburn. The Tigers went from one of two undefeated darlings, to suffering back-to-back conference losses. The top 10-15 continues to be a steady list, but the musical chairs is real, as no one seems to want to hold onto the top spots.

Hokies Look to Schedule to Propel NCAA Chances. 

Since our last update, the Hokies beat Wake Forest, but dropped a heartbreaker to Syracuse. Ultimately, the effect was minimal on the Hokies ranking or NCAA chances. The bubble is still home. We rank the Hokies at #51, while NET favors them slightly more at #44, but Kenpom has them lower at #56. Voters dropped the Hokies this week. Clearly, they have no TV or internet subscriptions, because anyone watching this team knows they are worthy of votes. The upcoming slate is all winnable, and that’s what needs to happen. Did you ever think playing UNC would be classified as a “must win?” That is the case this week as the Hokies face off against a battered Tar Heels squad in Blacksburg. Catch us down there and say hi! It’s worth noting that the Hokies have played their schedule really well. They have no bad losses (UVA and Syracuse are the worst losses), with Dayton, Duke and BYU all being roughly top 25 teams. To date, the Hokies losses have all come from the NET’s quadrant 1, a good sign come selection Sunday. Don’t forget the Michigan State win, which looks better each day!

ACC Settles Into Tiers

The ACC continues to eat itself alive, but we now can see some real tiers of teams shaping up. The top tier is only 3 teams deep in Duke, Florida State and Louisville. All of these teams should be in the running for a top 3 seed or better. Next comes the bubble tier of NC State, UVA, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. We argue that all of these teams tournament hopes remain strong as they show success across all ranking systems and have some good wins. It’s worth noting that the rankings boost Syracuse got from beat Virginia Tech, speaks to the respect of the Hokies in the rankings this year. Next comes the bottom tier of Clemson, Miami, Wake Forest, UNC (!), Georgia Tech and Boston College. These teams have been inconsistent and have probably dug a hole too deep to climb out of. While there are no easy conference games, these are the teams the Hokie must beat to have a shot at the NCAA.

ACC RankTeamEVTBEVTB ΔAPNETKenpomBracketology
2Florida State113513162
4NC State4513454310
5Virginia Tech51-2445612
6Virginia73-5386349First 4 Out
7Notre Dame74127460
11Miami (FL)114-198797
12Wake Forest142-1109107
13North Carolina157-612092
14Georgia Tech158-369689
15Boston College206-20169178
TeamEff RankSOS RankMOV RankLuck Rank
Florida State195329128
NC State455688185
Virginia Tech468959270
Notre Dame6311764314
Miami (FL)951424828
Wake Forest1064224169
North Carolina931325094
Georgia Tech859237145
Boston College161682927

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