Week 4: Conference Play Starts and Is The ACC a Rankings Cannibal?

General

We finally have conference play! Teams will have weekly chances to make a statement with quality wins, the competition will rise, dreams will be crushed and we will finally get a solid picture of who could be dancing. One week of conference play has already resulted in some drama, with the ACC, of course, front and center. Let us not waste time… here is the new top 25!

RankSchoolEVTB ScoreEff RankSOS RankMOV RankLuck Rank
1Kansas27.514114226
2Duke26.9092161139
3Michigan State24.0053127257
4San Diego State23.80411108388
5Gonzaga23.27671602122
6Auburn23.03613721266
7Maryland22.92181224173
8Butler22.747124716124
9West Virginia22.62410543158
10Dayton22.5476805205
11Oregon22.3259444188
12Arizona22.2044266313
13Baylor22.026158710135
14Ohio State21.67751811312
15Wichita State21.137219417113
16Florida State21.116185030147
17Rutgers20.235244623247
18Louisville19.988166219248
19Seton Hall19.97714652263
20Arkansas19.771299625182
21Memphis19.3591910913252
22Michigan19.309171154246
23Penn State19.288276138211
24Brigham Young19.18420851278
25Kentucky18.975225635243

Conference play finally brought some movement to the top 25. The biggest story of the week were the Ohio State Buckeyes, who managed to drop 3 straight games. Although each loss came against a strong opponent, Ohio State has probably dashed all hope of a 1 or 2 seed with that performance, and dropped 11 spots in the rankings. Piling on top of the football team’s playoff game, makes for a dreary week in Columbus. On the other hand, Rutgers rocketed up 12 spots to debut in our top 25 after 3 solid wins this week. At 12-3, Rutgers is starting to get some early tournament buzz and our model strongly agrees. Finally, a familiar face in the Kentucky Wildcats, is back in our top 25 after downing ACC rival Louisville. 

Hokies Continue to Slide Around the Bubble

Currently, the Hokies come in our rankings at #59. The slight drop was the results of an up and down week. Quantitatively, the blowout in Charlottesville hurt bad, but the road win against Syracuse was a big bandaid. Models across the board are still widely in agreement that the Hokies are bubble boys. Kenpom, NET and EVTB all have Blacksburg’s finest in the 50-60 range. For the Hokies to find themselves on the right side of the bubble, they need to keep sucking up mid-range wins. There is a big lack of quality wins in the ACC, so we are projecting that they will need well above 20 wins to have a shot at dancing. Looking to this week, winning 2 of 3 is almost a must.

The ACC Is A Cannibalistic League

If you’re a big ACC fan, you would probably say its a highly competitive league with parity. If you’re objectively assessing the conference at this point, it’s a below-average power 5 league where anyone can win, because no one is really that strong of a team. Currently, the ACC still projects only 5 tournament teams, and ACC play may hurt that projection. We already saw the last place BC Eagles take down UVA, UNC completely crater the season and bubble teams beat each other up in a round-robin fashion. Just this week, UVA beat VT, VT beat Syracuse, Clemson beat NC State, Miami beat Clemson, NC State beat Notre Dame, Notre Dame beat Syracuse, and Wake Forest Beat Pitt. You get the idea here. For the ACC to have a chance at more than 5 tournament teams, someone needs to separate themselves, and at this point, no one is stepping up. Outside of Duke, Louisville and Florida State, there are no quality wins in this league and I am going to say it… we only have 3 tournament locks right now.

ACC RankTeamEVTBEVTB ΔAPNETKenpomBracketology
1Duke202311
2Florida State1651018134
3Louisville18-3131664
4NC State52-6494511
5Virginia5641864367
6Virginia Tech59-115161
7Notre Dame7968058
8Pittsburgh8516967
9Miami (FL)101-229089
10Syracuse106-179570
11Clemson116309993
12Wake Forest11759795
13North Carolina128-3610671
14Georgia Tech144209685
15Boston College17222131132

TeamEff RankSOS RankMOV RankLuck Rank
Duke2161139
Florida State185030147
Louisville166219248
NC State497570223
Virginia618992218
Virginia Tech5311760259
Notre Dame6718058301
Pittsburgh7783129150
Miami (FL)941523920
Syracuse6264112330
Clemson7149146324
Wake Forest1013722291
North Carolina86623783
Georgia Tech84325287
Boston College1297124630

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