Happy new year to everyone and welcome back! Rankings were pretty steady since the last update, as the world was focused on football and holidays. NCAA teams were pitted against each other in tons of lopsided matchups, with a small amount of upsets. However, as we move into conference play, let’s see how the rankings are shaking out below.

Rank	School	EVTB Score	Eff Rank	SOS Rank	MOV Rank	Luck Rank
1	Kansas	27.074	1	1	5	246
2	Duke	26.372	2	13	1	152
3	Ohio State	24.451	3	32	4	236
4	San Diego State	24.400	8	81	3	90
5	Dayton	23.194	6	55	8	207
6	Auburn	23.151	11	83	16	75
7	Gonzaga	22.955	9	159	2	120
8	Michigan State	22.720	4	24	10	277
9	West Virginia	22.519	13	17	38	108
10	Butler	22.395	14	51	21	126
11	Oregon	21.986	7	6	40	231
12	Arizona	21.804	5	53	7	289
13	Maryland	21.803	10	19	30	190
14	Memphis	21.714	16	184	6	139
15	Louisville	21.063	15	96	17	220
16	Baylor	21.034	17	155	15	155
17	Arkansas	20.809	24	120	19	129
18	Colorado	20.375	20	16	64	143
19	Michigan	20.283	12	18	35	258
20	Wichita State	20.170	30	144	25	114
21	Florida State	20.117	25	72	34	176
22	Penn State	20.018	23	102	24	196
23	Saint Mary’s (CA)	19.981	33	74	22	173
24	Utah State	19.831	42	106	11	259
25	Brigham Young	19.749	18	4	68	257

The top 25 was really steady, with teams coasting through cupcake holiday schedules. The most interesting point so far this year is the dominance of non-power 5 schools. We currently have 9 teams ranked in the top 25, including 2 that beat the Hokies in Dayton and BYU. The mid-major star this year is the San Diego State Aztecs, currently sitting at #4 in our rankings, but #1 in NET. Keep an eye on the Aztecs for a possible undefeated season! The Hokies biggest win of the year against Michigan State is looking better and better each week, as the Spartans start to rise to their preseason expectations. The Spartans have climbed up to #8 in our rankings and they are receiving even more love from other ranking.

Hokies Hoover Up Easy Wins Into ACC

Currently, the Hokies come in our rankings at #48. Since the loss to Duke, the Hokies have won 5 easy, yet important, games. While the strength of schedule was hammered during this stretch, the Hokies beefed up their efficiency, margin of victory, and of course, win percentage. Overall, this resulted in a slight rankings improvement. Polls are pretty steady on the Hokies. The AP poll gives them 3 votes, putting them at #41, the NET rankings have them at #42 and Kenpom slightly lower at #60. Hokies made their Bracketology debut with a “Next 4 Out” rating. We can’t move the Hokies off the bubble yet, but Mike Young’s team did everything they needed to do so far this season to give themselves a shot at dancing, as we move into conference play.

Is the ACC Bad?

The answer to that question is yes, compared to expectations. At this point, the ACC would likely only have 5 teams in the tournament, with paths to 6, 7 or 8 teams looking challenging. Right now, the conference only has 4 locks: Duke, Louisville, Florida St and UVA. Teams like VT, NC St and Miami have some work to do. Compared to our last update, the ACC is slowly turning things around, so hopefully the trajectory continues and the field is full of ACC teams.

Lastly, let’s talk about tomorrow’s matchup. People and rankings don’t know what to do with UVA. Their name and reputation give them a big boost in human polls, and their defense is stifling. However, their offense is that of a middle school rec league team. Because of the large gap, UVA is difficult to evaluate. On average, the models seem to like the Hokies a little more than the Cavs. As always, we go by the numbers, so we’re predicting the Hokies start the new year with a win at Charlottesville! 

ACC Rank	Team	EVTB	EVTB Δ	AP	NET	Kenpom	Bracketology
1	Duke	2	0	2	5	1	1
2	Louisville	15	4	7	12	5	2
3	Florida State	21	1	18	25	20	4
4	NC State	46	7	–	30	35	11
5	Virginia Tech	48	6	41	42	60	Next 4 Out
6	Virginia	60	1	19	62	31	5
7	Miami (FL)	79	8	–	84	80
8	Notre Dame	85	8	–	91	67
9	Pittsburgh	86	3	–	72	74
10	Syracuse	89	3	–	83	61
11	North Carolina	92	11	–	82	45	First 4 Out
12	Wake Forest	122	-2	–	104	91
13	Clemson	146	-16	–	115	97	–
14	Georgia Tech	164	-4	–	110	94	–
15	Boston College	194	-11	–	159	149	–

Team	Eff Rank	SOS Rank	MOV Rank	Luck Rank
Duke	2	13	1	152
Louisville	15	96	17	220
Florida State	25	72	34	176
NC State	46	94	61	217
Virginia Tech	44	165	33	262
Virginia	67	98	110	156
Miami (FL)	81	44	182	59
Notre Dame	71	275	48	306
Pittsburgh	89	124	128	136
Syracuse	59	78	103	305
North Carolina	69	5	217	82
Wake Forest	102	50	214	99
Clemson	80	54	165	326
Georgia Tech	100	8	263	76
Boston College	147	90	255	35