Happy new year to everyone and welcome back! Rankings were pretty steady since the last update, as the world was focused on football and holidays. NCAA teams were pitted against each other in tons of lopsided matchups, with a small amount of upsets. However, as we move into conference play, let’s see how the rankings are shaking out below.
|Rank||School||EVTB Score||Eff Rank||SOS Rank||MOV Rank||Luck Rank|
|4||San Diego State||24.400||8||81||3||90|
|23||Saint Mary’s (CA)||19.981||33||74||22||173|
The top 25 was really steady, with teams coasting through cupcake holiday schedules. The most interesting point so far this year is the dominance of non-power 5 schools. We currently have 9 teams ranked in the top 25, including 2 that beat the Hokies in Dayton and BYU. The mid-major star this year is the San Diego State Aztecs, currently sitting at #4 in our rankings, but #1 in NET. Keep an eye on the Aztecs for a possible undefeated season! The Hokies biggest win of the year against Michigan State is looking better and better each week, as the Spartans start to rise to their preseason expectations. The Spartans have climbed up to #8 in our rankings and they are receiving even more love from other ranking.
Hokies Hoover Up Easy Wins Into ACC
Currently, the Hokies come in our rankings at #48. Since the loss to Duke, the Hokies have won 5 easy, yet important, games. While the strength of schedule was hammered during this stretch, the Hokies beefed up their efficiency, margin of victory, and of course, win percentage. Overall, this resulted in a slight rankings improvement. Polls are pretty steady on the Hokies. The AP poll gives them 3 votes, putting them at #41, the NET rankings have them at #42 and Kenpom slightly lower at #60. Hokies made their Bracketology debut with a “Next 4 Out” rating. We can’t move the Hokies off the bubble yet, but Mike Young’s team did everything they needed to do so far this season to give themselves a shot at dancing, as we move into conference play.
Is the ACC Bad?
The answer to that question is yes, compared to expectations. At this point, the ACC would likely only have 5 teams in the tournament, with paths to 6, 7 or 8 teams looking challenging. Right now, the conference only has 4 locks: Duke, Louisville, Florida St and UVA. Teams like VT, NC St and Miami have some work to do. Compared to our last update, the ACC is slowly turning things around, so hopefully the trajectory continues and the field is full of ACC teams.
Lastly, let’s talk about tomorrow’s matchup. People and rankings don’t know what to do with UVA. Their name and reputation give them a big boost in human polls, and their defense is stifling. However, their offense is that of a middle school rec league team. Because of the large gap, UVA is difficult to evaluate. On average, the models seem to like the Hokies a little more than the Cavs. As always, we go by the numbers, so we’re predicting the Hokies start the new year with a win at Charlottesville!
|ACC Rank||Team||EVTB||EVTB Δ||AP||NET||Kenpom||Bracketology|
|5||Virginia Tech||48||6||41||42||60||Next 4 Out|
|11||North Carolina||92||11||–||82||45||First 4 Out|
|Team||Eff Rank||SOS Rank||MOV Rank||Luck Rank|