EVTB Rankings Week 2: Hokies Settle Into Rankings, NET Debuts

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By: Eric Eichelberger

Welcome to the second week of our EVTB rankings. In the world of computer rankings, this is a huge week with the release of the NCAA NET Rankings. For some background, the NET started last season as a replacement and improvement over RPI. According to the NCAA, NET “relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.” For more curious, check out the explanation here. The formula isn’t public, but the committee will no doubt be leaning heavily on NET come March. Anyway, you’re here for EVTB Rankings, not NET, so let’s see how they shake out this week. We have made some improvements to the transparency of our rankings but giving you details on teams rank in efficiency margin, strength of schedule, margin of victory and luck.

RankSchoolEVTB ScoreEff RankSOS RankMOV RankLuck Rank
1Kansas27.819183180
2Ohio State25.8292611192
3Duke25.65731010164
4Dayton23.8625626178
5Auburn23.79610512173
6San Diego State23.472121151389
7Arizona23.4254594242
8Oregon23.2206177189
9Maryland23.21273529140
10Gonzaga22.54291655149
11West Virginia22.510133246135
12Baylor22.409114731162
13Louisville21.8661414912163
14Butler21.664197930152
15Memphis21.643159920154
16Arkansas21.5101613017171
17Duquesne20.910292451192
18Utah State20.544231687240
19Wichita State20.5312514525150
20Penn State20.424213766184
21Stanford20.362242239176
22Michigan State20.26582744301
23Indiana20.1902715927133
24Louisiana State19.9401815615268
25Florida State19.907226349233

Although many top teams lost this week, there weren’t too many big movers, just more of a musical chairs among the top teams. The early rankings tend to have a lot of movement and noise, but at this point in the season we are settling in, just before the kick-off of conference play. Outside the top 25, there were some wild swings. Mike Young’s former squad, the Wofford Terriers, stormed +49 spots after topping the Tar Heels. Nebraska shot up +42 places after beating Purdue. Quick note on Purdue: many ranking models love the Boilermakers, including Kenpom. So far they have had a lackluster season at 6-4, but EVTB was on top of it early, never having Purdue in the top 25, and NET is in agreement. Speaking of Purdue, they sank -30 spots this week at the hands of Nebraska. It’s worth noting that the dismantling the Hokies laid on Garner-Webb cost the Runnin’ Bulldogs -56 places in our rankings.

Hokies Settle Down, Look to Position Themselves Before ACC Play

After a solid week, the Hokies improved a few spots to #60 in our rankings. Other rankings feel the same way about VT, with rankings of #62 in NET and #63 in Kenpom. However, voters like the Hokies a little more with the AP having them at #42, one of the 50 teams getting votes this week. With no love from ESPN Bracketology, and considering the other data, the Hokies still remain fringe bubble team at this time, and need to get off to a good ACC start in the new year. 

The ACC: From Bad to Worse

Last week, we highlighted the struggles of the ACC so far, and this week saw no improvement. After some tough losses, the conference saw Georgia Tech slide -17 places, Syracuse drop -20 spots, Clemson fall -26 notches and North Carolina freefall -36 places. Looking at other rating systems, Kenpom and NET are much more favorable to the ACC. EVTB only has 6 ACC squads in the top 100, while NET has 10 and Kenpom has 13. Time will tell who is right, but even though we are down on the ACC, we are rooting for an improvement, led by the Hokies. Clearly voters view the ACC in a good light, as there is a huge divergence (see UNC) between human polls and computer polls. This is likely based on program reputation, but there is good evidence that a lot of these teams will likely turn their seasons around.

ACC RankTeamEVTBEVTB ΔAPNETKenpomBracketology
1Duke3041322
2Louisville13-13831
3Florida State25-41927164
4Virginia34093993
5North Carolina State48125035First 4 Out
6Virginia Tech608436263
7Pittsburgh10108172
8Syracuse103-207554
9Notre Dame1041310565
10North Carolina110-362695368
11Wake Forest1201310390
12Miami (FL)133-78987
13Clemson151-26139100
14Georgia Tech169-1712893
15Boston College189-4143130

Diving into the details of the rankings, Duke remains the leader across the board. It’s worth noting that we caught some flack for our ranking of UVA last week. This week they come in at #34 and NET agrees with our assessment, having them lower at #39. Looking at the ACC as a whole, it is an efficient league that has played a hell of a schedule, which should be commended. However, it has come at the cost of several losses, resulting in poorer-than-expected ranking performance.

TeamEff RankSOS RankMOV RankLuck Rank
Duke31010164
Louisville1414912163
Florida State226349233
Virginia5489100142
North Carolina State4413961200
Virginia Tech488592248
Pittsburgh8055173131
Syracuse5343132327
Notre Dame8629960274
North Carolina7626209121
Wake Forest8422233106
Miami (FL)1189022138
Clemson96108170294
Georgia Tech1153825869
Boston College134150212123

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