By: Eric Eichelberger

Welcome to the second week of our EVTB rankings. In the world of computer rankings, this is a huge week with the release of the NCAA NET Rankings. For some background, the NET started last season as a replacement and improvement over RPI. According to the NCAA, NET “relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.” For more curious, check out the explanation here. The formula isn’t public, but the committee will no doubt be leaning heavily on NET come March. Anyway, you’re here for EVTB Rankings, not NET, so let’s see how they shake out this week. We have made some improvements to the transparency of our rankings but giving you details on teams rank in efficiency margin, strength of schedule, margin of victory and luck.

Rank	School	EVTB Score	Eff Rank	SOS Rank	MOV Rank	Luck Rank
1	Kansas	27.819	1	8	3	180
2	Ohio State	25.829	2	61	1	192
3	Duke	25.657	3	10	10	164
4	Dayton	23.862	5	62	6	178
5	Auburn	23.796	10	51	21	73
6	San Diego State	23.472	12	115	13	89
7	Arizona	23.425	4	59	4	242
8	Oregon	23.220	6	1	77	189
9	Maryland	23.212	7	35	29	140
10	Gonzaga	22.542	9	165	5	149
11	West Virginia	22.510	13	32	46	135
12	Baylor	22.409	11	47	31	162
13	Louisville	21.866	14	149	12	163
14	Butler	21.664	19	79	30	152
15	Memphis	21.643	15	99	20	154
16	Arkansas	21.510	16	130	17	171
17	Duquesne	20.910	29	245	11	92
18	Utah State	20.544	23	168	7	240
19	Wichita State	20.531	25	145	25	150
20	Penn State	20.424	21	37	66	184
21	Stanford	20.362	24	223	9	176
22	Michigan State	20.265	8	27	44	301
23	Indiana	20.190	27	159	27	133
24	Louisiana State	19.940	18	156	15	268
25	Florida State	19.907	22	63	49	233

Although many top teams lost this week, there weren’t too many big movers, just more of a musical chairs among the top teams. The early rankings tend to have a lot of movement and noise, but at this point in the season we are settling in, just before the kick-off of conference play. Outside the top 25, there were some wild swings. Mike Young’s former squad, the Wofford Terriers, stormed +49 spots after topping the Tar Heels. Nebraska shot up +42 places after beating Purdue. Quick note on Purdue: many ranking models love the Boilermakers, including Kenpom. So far they have had a lackluster season at 6-4, but EVTB was on top of it early, never having Purdue in the top 25, and NET is in agreement. Speaking of Purdue, they sank -30 spots this week at the hands of Nebraska. It’s worth noting that the dismantling the Hokies laid on Garner-Webb cost the Runnin’ Bulldogs -56 places in our rankings.

Hokies Settle Down, Look to Position Themselves Before ACC Play

After a solid week, the Hokies improved a few spots to #60 in our rankings. Other rankings feel the same way about VT, with rankings of #62 in NET and #63 in Kenpom. However, voters like the Hokies a little more with the AP having them at #42, one of the 50 teams getting votes this week. With no love from ESPN Bracketology, and considering the other data, the Hokies still remain fringe bubble team at this time, and need to get off to a good ACC start in the new year. 

The ACC: From Bad to Worse

Last week, we highlighted the struggles of the ACC so far, and this week saw no improvement. After some tough losses, the conference saw Georgia Tech slide -17 places, Syracuse drop -20 spots, Clemson fall -26 notches and North Carolina freefall -36 places. Looking at other rating systems, Kenpom and NET are much more favorable to the ACC. EVTB only has 6 ACC squads in the top 100, while NET has 10 and Kenpom has 13. Time will tell who is right, but even though we are down on the ACC, we are rooting for an improvement, led by the Hokies. Clearly voters view the ACC in a good light, as there is a huge divergence (see UNC) between human polls and computer polls. This is likely based on program reputation, but there is good evidence that a lot of these teams will likely turn their seasons around.

ACC Rank	Team	EVTB	EVTB Δ	AP	NET	Kenpom	Bracketology
1	Duke	3	0	4	13	2	2
2	Louisville	13	-1	3	8	3	1
3	Florida State	25	-4	19	27	16	4
4	Virginia	34	0	9	39	9	3
5	North Carolina State	48	12	–	50	35	First 4 Out
6	Virginia Tech	60	8	43	62	63	–
7	Pittsburgh	101	0	–	81	72	–
8	Syracuse	103	-20	–	75	54	–
9	Notre Dame	104	13	–	105	65	–
10	North Carolina	110	-36	26	95	36	8
11	Wake Forest	120	13	–	103	90	–
12	Miami (FL)	133	-7	–	89	87	–
13	Clemson	151	-26	–	139	100	–
14	Georgia Tech	169	-17	–	128	93	–
15	Boston College	189	-4	–	143	130	–

Diving into the details of the rankings, Duke remains the leader across the board. It’s worth noting that we caught some flack for our ranking of UVA last week. This week they come in at #34 and NET agrees with our assessment, having them lower at #39. Looking at the ACC as a whole, it is an efficient league that has played a hell of a schedule, which should be commended. However, it has come at the cost of several losses, resulting in poorer-than-expected ranking performance.

Team	Eff Rank	SOS Rank	MOV Rank	Luck Rank
Duke	3	10	10	164
Louisville	14	149	12	163
Florida State	22	63	49	233
Virginia	54	89	100	142
North Carolina State	44	139	61	200
Virginia Tech	48	85	92	248
Pittsburgh	80	55	173	131
Syracuse	53	43	132	327
Notre Dame	86	299	60	274
North Carolina	76	26	209	121
Wake Forest	84	22	233	106
Miami (FL)	118	90	221	38
Clemson	96	108	170	294
Georgia Tech	115	38	258	69
Boston College	134	150	212	123