By: Eric Eichelberger
Welcome to the second week of our EVTB rankings. In the world of computer rankings, this is a huge week with the release of the NCAA NET Rankings. For some background, the NET started last season as a replacement and improvement over RPI. According to the NCAA, NET “relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.” For more curious, check out the explanation here. The formula isn’t public, but the committee will no doubt be leaning heavily on NET come March. Anyway, you’re here for EVTB Rankings, not NET, so let’s see how they shake out this week. We have made some improvements to the transparency of our rankings but giving you details on teams rank in efficiency margin, strength of schedule, margin of victory and luck.
|Rank||School||EVTB Score||Eff Rank||SOS Rank||MOV Rank||Luck Rank|
|6||San Diego State||23.472||12||115||13||89|
Although many top teams lost this week, there weren’t too many big movers, just more of a musical chairs among the top teams. The early rankings tend to have a lot of movement and noise, but at this point in the season we are settling in, just before the kick-off of conference play. Outside the top 25, there were some wild swings. Mike Young’s former squad, the Wofford Terriers, stormed +49 spots after topping the Tar Heels. Nebraska shot up +42 places after beating Purdue. Quick note on Purdue: many ranking models love the Boilermakers, including Kenpom. So far they have had a lackluster season at 6-4, but EVTB was on top of it early, never having Purdue in the top 25, and NET is in agreement. Speaking of Purdue, they sank -30 spots this week at the hands of Nebraska. It’s worth noting that the dismantling the Hokies laid on Garner-Webb cost the Runnin’ Bulldogs -56 places in our rankings.
Hokies Settle Down, Look to Position Themselves Before ACC Play
After a solid week, the Hokies improved a few spots to #60 in our rankings. Other rankings feel the same way about VT, with rankings of #62 in NET and #63 in Kenpom. However, voters like the Hokies a little more with the AP having them at #42, one of the 50 teams getting votes this week. With no love from ESPN Bracketology, and considering the other data, the Hokies still remain fringe bubble team at this time, and need to get off to a good ACC start in the new year.
The ACC: From Bad to Worse
Last week, we highlighted the struggles of the ACC so far, and this week saw no improvement. After some tough losses, the conference saw Georgia Tech slide -17 places, Syracuse drop -20 spots, Clemson fall -26 notches and North Carolina freefall -36 places. Looking at other rating systems, Kenpom and NET are much more favorable to the ACC. EVTB only has 6 ACC squads in the top 100, while NET has 10 and Kenpom has 13. Time will tell who is right, but even though we are down on the ACC, we are rooting for an improvement, led by the Hokies. Clearly voters view the ACC in a good light, as there is a huge divergence (see UNC) between human polls and computer polls. This is likely based on program reputation, but there is good evidence that a lot of these teams will likely turn their seasons around.
|ACC Rank||Team||EVTB||EVTB Δ||AP||NET||Kenpom||Bracketology|
|5||North Carolina State||48||12||–||50||35||First 4 Out|
Diving into the details of the rankings, Duke remains the leader across the board. It’s worth noting that we caught some flack for our ranking of UVA last week. This week they come in at #34 and NET agrees with our assessment, having them lower at #39. Looking at the ACC as a whole, it is an efficient league that has played a hell of a schedule, which should be commended. However, it has come at the cost of several losses, resulting in poorer-than-expected ranking performance.
|Team||Eff Rank||SOS Rank||MOV Rank||Luck Rank|
|North Carolina State||44||139||61||200|